~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (545)

No double indent, from the excellent Matthew Lilley: “Hi Tyler, I thoroughly agree with both of you on taxing unrealised capital gains. I am intrigued though by Furman’s rejoinder of “why are you guys opposed to broader and flatter taxes?” Except for loopholes like step-up basis (just fix those directly), how is taxing unrealised capital […] The post More on taxing unrealized capital gains...

We study Taiwan’s landmark 1950s land reform, long seen as central to its growth miracle. Phase II of reform—which redistributed formerly Japanese public lands—reduced tenancy, boosted rice yields, and increased the share of labor in agriculture. By contrast, phase III— which reduced tenancy by breaking up larger estates—did not increase agricultural productivity and pushed labor […] The post How much did land reform help...

The proximate cause of this problem is the housing crisis, but the underlying reason is that Ireland’s political spectrum is still broken due to being defined by its reactions to colonialism and Catholicism. Beneath the surface-level tides of imperialism, rebellion, theocracy, and liberalisation is a deep nationwide conformism and lack of agency. There is a […] The post Claims about Ireland (from the comments)...

Dylan Matthews and a few others were saying this on Twitter, so I thought I should cover the question.  Perhaps we are all understanding terms differently, but my answer is a simple “no.”  At least not apart from the step-up basis being revalued at death, which I (like many others) would change.  Even that is […] The post Does the current structure of capital...

On the Housing Crisis: Land, Development, Democracy.  I just heard it is out today, of course I ordered my copy immediately… The post The new Jerusalem Demsas book appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Anti-Gnostic. A well-functioning metro area (and ... by mkt42In reply to Josh M. Right. But maybe the book is one that ... by mkt42In reply to Anti-Gnostic....

1. Durlauf reviews Koyama and Rubin, and Brad DeLong. 2. Some remarks on Norway and unrealized capital gains taxes.  And Scott Sumner, on his new Substack, on how to manage taxation. 3. Chinese student views on AI risk. 4. The Pentium as Navajo weaving. 5. “I think hate is very much part of any complete […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

Ireland ranks as the loneliest country in Europe, with almost a fifth of people lonely most or all of the time and nearly two-thirds of people suffer from anxiety or depression, according to EU data. One in seven children live in homes below the poverty line, defined as 60 per cent of the median disposable […] The post Ireland fact of the day appeared...

I don’t agree with this theory as stated, but it can be worth spelling such things out, if only to see their weaknesses, or perhaps some strengths at some of the more unusual or less likely margins.  Here goes: People, especially “thinkers,” like to believe they serve all sorts of noble purposes in the intellectual […] The post A simple theory of which thinkers...

scottsumner.substack.com The post Scott Sumner is switching to Substack appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Bill Allen. Just like with Covid, is the reaction ... by rsmIn reply to Neurotic. So you've solved all those problems ... by rsmIn reply to rsm. Of course! Scott is a serious dude while you ... by EdRIn reply to rsm. Let's see…Yeah, let's see...

1. Founder mode. 2. Forthcoming movie about brutalism, The Brutalist, three hours and thirty-five minutes, receives standing ovation. 3. Paper types, ranked by likelihood of paper cuts. 4. Pre-order the new Houllebecq. 5. Judit Polgar, egalitarian radical.  She is not a sexist. 6. Okie-dokie.  Neo again. 7. Trade and the end of antiquity. 8. Hard […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

Sadly, Jason Furman has been endorsing one of the very worst economic ideas of our generation.  Here is Jason’s Twitter take, here is his earlier WSJ piece. Let me start with his quick summary: I like the Biden-Harris proposal to tax unrealized capital gains. For any given level of capital taxation it’s more efficient & […] The post Taxing unrealized capital gains is a...

First read Tyler on the practical difficulties implementing a tax on unrealized capital gains! I have a different argument that I rarely see discussed. A significant fraction of what we call capital gains is due to variation in the discount rate rather than variation in income. Take the simplest Gordon model of stocks P=D/r where […] The post Taxing Unrealized Capital Gains and Interest...

“I didn’t want my ex-employer to deny my resignation and keep me working for longer,” she told CNN during a recent interview. But she found a way to end the impasse. She turned to Momuri, a resignation agency that helps timid employees leave their intimidating bosses. For the price of a fancy dinner, many Japanese […] The post Those new Japanese service sector job...

1. Learning by teaching chatbots. 2. Noam Dworman profile (WSJ). 3. Wisconsin fact of the day, where are the most drunk counties? 4. Can the cost of solar energy keep on shrinking? 5. Are low wages an advantage in international trade? (bears on the Michael Pettis claims of course) 6. Elite tennis servers would do […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

Progress in crypto has been slow but one saving grace may be AI. AIs can’t get a bank account but they can use cryptocurrencies. Bryan Armstrong at Coinbase tweets: This week at @CoinbaseDev we witnessed our first AI to AI crypto transaction. What did one AI buy from another? Tokens! Not crypto tokens, but AI […] The post Crypto is the Money for AIs...

About ninety minutes, transcript only, almost entirely fresh material.  Lots of philosophy.  Here is one excerpt: Tyler Cowen: I think when you read [John] Gray on many people, you get quite a bit of Gray. That’s not a complaint. I love reading John. I like him. I like talking to him a great deal. But I […] The post My dialogue with Aashish Reddy appeared...

When people criticize cars, you often hear it mentioned that many people die in road accidents, many more are injured, and so on.  All that is true, dangerous driving does represent a negative externality on others, and it implies that roadway reforms should be undertaken. Still, the point remains that, for those who choose to […] The post Sometimes people overrate “marginal value” and...

Market efficiency is a central issue in asset pricing and investment management, but while the level of efficiency is often debated, changes in that level are relatively absent from the discussion. I argue that over the past 30+ years markets have become less informationally efficient in the relative pricing of common stocks, particularly over medium […] The post The Less-Efficient Market Hypothesis appeared first...

1. FT lunch with Eugene Fama. 2. Alexa will be powered by Claude.  And ChatGPT goes to church? 3. In praise of reading reference books. 4. AI analyzes interviewing styles, in this case with CWT with Nate Silver. 5. Five productive years from Stephen Wolfram. 6. The microfoundations of Long Covid. 7. New documentary on […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

I am pleased and also honored to have been sent an advance copy of The Daylight Computer. It performs functions similar to those of an iPad and a Kindle, but with improvements. My first surprise is that I proved capable of operating the thing.  It requires no expertise above and beyond what you need to […] The post The Daylight Computer appeared first on...

Neo, and the Norwegian Century? (It’s happening)  And more here.  And yet more. It’s not just Magnus Carlsen, people! The post Neo, and the Norwegian Century appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsThank god I’m 67 years old and can take comfort in knowing ... by Non-cylonLoading/unloading the dishwasher is annoying, but not really ... by DeservingPorcupineIn reply to Crikey. I realize it's Norwegian,...

1. NYC is starting a crackdown to ensure payment of bus fares (NYT). 2. Steve Silberman, RIP. 3. 100 million token context window? 4. Egypt sending troops to Somalia? 5. “Japan plans cash incentive for women to marry and leave Tokyo.”  I think they will find it hard to achieve the desired ends here. 6. […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

September 16, 7-8.30, 2-190: “Is Capitalism Defensible?”, with Tyler Cowen (GMU Economics), and Alexander Gourevitch (Brown Political Science). Please register here. Here is the link. The post Capitalism debate at MIT appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsHasn't one of the weak points of market capitalism been with ... by Economics at the MarginIn reply to rsm. I note that you completely ignore the first ... by DinwarIn reply to...

In 2022, Mpox, a viral disease endemic to parts of Africa and primarily transmitted through close contact—especially sexual contact between men—spread to developed countries, including the United States. The U.S. saw over 30,000 cases and approximately 58 deaths. Despite two available vaccines there was not nearly enough supply to vaccinate even the high-risk populations. Fortunately, […] The post Mpox Vaccines Stuck in Limbo: WHO...