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More and more people are starting to decry the lack of progress from AI-driven companies that promised large numbers of drugs would come to market by now. And what they’ve produced is neither novel nor performing well in clinical trials. Major Failures The largest players in the space have seen several drug candidates shelved or ... Read more

The SpaceX Starship and Super Heavy vehicles for Flight 5 have been ready to launch since the first week of August. The flight test will include our most ambitious objective yet: attempt to return the Super Heavy booster to the launch site and catch it in mid-air. SpaceX recently received a launch license date estimate ... Read more

SpaceX and Elon Musk will need to get to about $200 billion per year in profits to sustain spending $40-50 billion per year for the major Mars colonization goals. SpaceX and Elon need to make $5-8+ trillion to spend $1-2 Trillion for the Mars City Program. NASA and others cannot be counted on for more ... Read more

Canada is about ten weeks from passing 42 million. Nextbigfuture predicted that Canada would pass 42 million in February 12, 2024 when Canada was within 3 weeks of passing 41 million. The US has about 337 million people. On June 16, 2023, Statistics Canada announced that Canada’s population had reached 40 million people. In 17 ... Read more

Regulators such as the FDA do not consider aging to be a disease, and they only approve treatments for specific diseases, largely using the World Health Organization’s International Classification of Diseases as the basis for what is and is not a disease. The TAME (Targeting Aging with Metformin) trial came into being as a way ... Read more

Facebook has ~10x the proprietary language data on database as was used to train the LLaMa models. In images Facebook have 20x more than that. Instagram and Youtube have 2x more that in uploaded video. Tesla’s data capture-ability dwarfs all (at 20x more again) than Youtube. Size matters Facebook has ~10x the proprietary language data ... Read more

Nearly an hour into the All in Summit talk, Elon Musk discussed the Teslabot. Elon says that three major iterations into Teslabot will see the Teslabot majorly perfected. This should be in 4 to 6 years. The bots will be $10,000 to $20,000 cost. Humans are humanoid meatbots. There should be at least a three ... Read more

Elon says Dojo 2 (AI training chip and systems) out late in 2025 in high volume and it will be competitive with the Nvidia B200. Elon says we will need to see Tesla Dojo 3 (in late 2026) to see if Dojo will be really good and an ongoing success. 💥 Elon Musk LIVE at ... Read more

Elon Musk said the government is the DMV (Department of Motor Vehicles) at scale. Elon talks about the Mars goals. Elon says Starship will be able to launch repeatedly at scale. The key development for multi-planetary humanity is for a reliably, rapidly, reusable rocket. 💥 Elon Musk LIVE at the All-In Summit https://t.co/i5A70kvWElhttps://t.co/i5A70kvWEl — Tesla ... Read more

SpaceX financial strength and success is as critical as a working Super Heavy Starship. There is a lot of valid and competent talk about the technical milestones on the critical path to meeting Musk goals for Mars. SpaceX will need to get to about $200 billion per year in profits to sustain spending $40-50 billion ... Read more

James Earl Jones was the voice of Darth Vader and also acted in Field of Dreams, Red October and other Jack Ryan Movies. He was also the villain Thulsa Doom in Conan, opposite Arnold Schwarzenegger. His was the deep voice of Star Wars villain Darth Vader and Mufasa, the benevolent leader in The Lion King. ... Read more

Billionaire Venture Investors BG2 (Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley) have dug deep into nuclear fission energy. They had their most recent podcast at Diablo Canyon. The California Diablo Canyon facility has two nuclear plants with a total 2.5 Gigawatts of clean baseload power. The California Diablo Canyon facility was designed for six nuclear plants. If ... Read more

There have been many technological improvements and upgrades made to the Crew Dragon Resilience to be used for the Polaris Dawn first commercial EVA. They have been big improvements for the EVA suits. These efforts will also be useful for eventual manned missions to the Moon and Mars. A key improvement is developing EVA suits ... Read more

This is a link to the SpaceX website where they will broadcast live feeds from the Polaris Dawn mission. Weather is currently 40% favorable for liftoff, and conditions at the possible splashdown sites for Dragon’s return to Earth remain a watch item. Tuesday launch is the earliest Targeting no earlier than Tuesday, September 10 for ... Read more

Neil Degrasse Tyson has a poor grasp of business and finance. He also made statements that he knew were not accurate. He knows there was refurbishment and there is reusable. He is also just wrong when he says that SpaceX only has made engineering advances on what was unrealistic in terms of cost. This clip ... Read more

The NASA New Glenn Escapade Mars launch, previously scheduled for Oct. 13, 2024, will now take place in spring of 2025 at the earliest. The NASA escapade spacecraft are small, so they can be launched outside of the optimal Earth-Mars window with a more powerful rocket. Blue Origin’s huge New Glenn rocket won’t debut next ... Read more

Elon Musk says that uncrewed Starships will be launched to Mars in the Earth-Mars transfer window. The transfer window is about November through December 2026. A mission launched in November would arrive July 2027. SpaceX will likely launch about 4-8 missions in 2026. If they were separated by 1-2 weeks, then any problems the first ... Read more

The problematic Boeing Starliner should be leaving the Space Station in about 24 minutes. It will try to return to Earth in about 6 hours and Starliner will contain no astronauts. They had thruster problems and helium leaks. They had to fix the software over a month to switch from crewed mode to uncrewed.

Tesla uses robotaxi sensors at training time but then the AI is trained and they remove the training wheels for vision only deployment. Karpathy believes Tesla is ahead of Waymo. Waymo has a hardware problem while Tesla has a software problem. I believe Waymo also has business model and scaling problems.

Anthropic CEO talks about AI scaling laws which is a discussion about how good AI gets with more compute training. Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California’s SB 1047 bill. They also ... Read more

Tesla AI team released the FSD roadmap. Each FSD sale is the profit of a car. some of my FSD catalysts from a few months ago were late. 12.5 happened late in July. One month late on this roadmap is ok. But the team is driving and testing FSD V13 for over a month. They ... Read more