~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (551)

I cover these in my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: A new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that tariffs probably did more harm than good. Using meticulously collected industry-level and state-level data, the paper traces the impact of specific tariff rates more clearly than before. The results are not pretty. One […] The post New results on tariff history do...

1. AI binoculars for birdwatching. 2. Fifty global guitar greats. 3. Creative destruction (WSJ). 4. The internet, time, and oral culture. 5. Profile of Larry Katz. 6. Imaginary podcast okie-dokie. 7. Why is Spain growing so fast? The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Phil S.. “GDP/capita lower than 2008.” PPP ... by Todd KIn reply to...

In a September 2024 report, UBS, an investment banker, predicted both tech hardware and semiconductors to be among the top four sectors that would be hardest hit by a general tariff. Their analysis is spot on. Many of the hardware components that make AI and digital tech possible rely on imported materials not found or manufactured […] The post Tariff sentences to ponder appeared first...

Excellent post by Vitalik on prediction markets and the broader category of what he calls info finance: Now, we get to the important part: predicting the election is just the first app. The broader concept is that you can use finance as a way to align incentives in order to provide viewers with valuable information. …Similar to […] The post Info Finance appeared first on Marginal...

We test for labor market discrimination based on an understudied characteristic: name fluency. Analysis of recent economics PhD job candidates indicates that name difficulty is negatively related to the probability of landing an academic or tenure-track position and research productivity of initial institutional placement. Discrimination due to name fluency is also found using experimental data […] The post Difficult to pronounce names appeared first...

This paper shows that immigration fostered the emergence of organized labor in the United States. I digitize archival data to construct the first county-level dataset on historical U.S. union membership and use a shift-share instrument to isolate a plausibly exogenous shock to the labor supply induced by immigration, between 1900 and 1920. Counties with higher […] The post What do unions do? appeared first...

1. Will the NIH be changing? 2. Who has the best corporate chess team? 3. Painting by A.I.-powered robot sells for $1.1 million (NYT). 4. Ant wars. 5. Will AI be demoralizing scientists? 6. John Malkovich premiere sparks protests in Bulgaria. The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to M. The way the AI tool is described, it...

You’ve likely heard of Prospera, the private city in Honduras established under the ZEDE (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) law, which has drawn global investment for medical innovation. The current Honduran government is trying to break its contracts and evict Prospera from Honduras. The libertarian concept of an autonomous medical hub, free to attract […] The post China’s Libertarian Medical City appeared first...

By Nitin Kumar Bharti and Li Yang: Abstract. The education system of a country is instrumental in its long-run development. This paper compares the historical evolution of the education systems in the two largest emerging economies- China and India, between 1900 and 2018. We create a novel time-series data of educational statistics related to enrolment, […] The post Human Capital Accumulation in China and...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: There are a lot of numbers, but here is the comparison I find most impressive: Adjusting for grants, rather than taking sticker prices at face value, the inflation-adjusted tuition cost for an in-state freshman at a four-year public university is $2,480 for this […] The post Higher education is getting cheaper appeared...

The Australian government has pledged to legislate an age limit of 16 years for social media access, with penalties for online platforms that do not comply. But the Labor government has not spelled out how it expects Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and others to actually enforce that age limit. Anthony Albanese is facing pressure from the Coalition opposition […] The post Where they are headed appeared first...

1. Are AI-designed tattoos taboo? (WSJ) 2. Bookstore slotting fees to an extreme. 3. Common Sense Democrats. 4. NSF being investigated on DEI issues. 5. 36 year India ban on Rushdie ends because original notification cannot be found. 6. Delighted to see that Anthropic is participating in “the next American century.” 7. Daron Acemoglu political […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

 I assess the climate impact of granting federal approval to all proposed U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminal projects, which would double U.S. export capacity by 2030. Results indicate a net decrease in global emissions through 2070, primarily due to higher local gas prices in the U.S., leading to lower domestic gas generation and […] The post The economics of U.S. LNG exports...

Political polarization is increasingly affecting policymaking, but how is it influencing professional decision-making? This paper studies the differences in medical practice between Republican and Democratic physicians over 1999-2019. It links physicians in the Medicare claims data with their campaign contributions to determine their partyalignment. In 1999, there were no partisan differences in medical expenditure perpatient. […] The post Do you want a Democratic or...

Income Inequality Robert Kuttner and Tyler Cowen in conversation, moderated by Jeff Greenfield NYC, November 17, here is the link. The post The 92nd St. Y appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to MikeP. 🤔 by EdRI miss Sarah Huckaby by windowpaneIn reply to Chezzy. Alright, but just so you know, everyone ... by DFLIn reply to DFL. I think you need...

1. The returns to Naloxone. 2. Philippines resort features world’s largest chicken-shaped building. 3. World’s strongest man and champion bird breeder dies (NYT). 4. Ranked choice voting did not do well. 5. World’s first wooden satellite. 6. Signs in Target now say “Merry Christmas”. The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to James. Woke has been a convenient...

The prediction markets predicted the election outcome more accurately and more quickly than polls or other forecasting methods, just as expected from decades of research. In this election, however, many people discounted the prediction markets because of large trades on Polymarket. Paul Krugman, for example, wrote: Never mind the prediction markets, which are thin and […] The post Prediction Markets for the Win appeared...

Market up like crazy (especially small caps), 1. Freddie Mac (FMCC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA) stocks just gained 35% and 30% respectively on the 2024 election news https://x.com/Jon_Hartley_/status/1854278771546968569 2. Retail, solar and cannibis stocks all down. https://x.com/Jon_Hartley_/status/1854286070000861638 While the overall stock market today gained on election news of market friendly regulatory and tax policies in the […] The post More market price reactions appeared first...

1. Edwin Frank, Stranger Than Fiction: Lives of the Twentieth Century Novel.  Very good short portraits of various classic novels, including Machado de Assis, Mann’s Magic Mountain, Dr. Moreau, Carpentier, Perec, and others.  At this point I am usually sick of such books but this one I stuck with as it is rewarding throughout. 2. […] The post What I’ve been reading appeared first...

The dollar surged by its most in two years and Wall Street was poised for big gains as Donald Trump’s historic US election victory sent investors around the world scrambling to price in a new regime of trade tariffs and tax cuts. The US currency raced higher against the euro, the yen and the pound […] The post The market price reactions appeared first...

The economy is strong and Trump has a significant opportunity to simply take credit for that if he avoids major disruptions. While he must fulfill some of his campaign promises, people voted for Trump not for his policies per se. Trump has leeway. No one will accuse him of flip-flopping. While these are not my […] The post What is the Best-Case Scenario for...

1. Prediction markets 2. Competitive primary elections 3. Elon 4. French whales 5. The integrity of the American electoral system 6. J.D. Vance 7. The word “trifecta” 8. Twitter 9. Podcasts 10. Long podcasts 11. The Amish 12. Men What else? You don’t have to like all of those outcomes, but that is my assessment.  […] The post Rising in status appeared first on...

That is the central topic of the job market paper of Sahil Chinoy from Harvard University.  Here is the abstract: We study political sorting in the labor market and examine its sources. Merging voter file data and online résumés to create a panel of 34.5 million people, we show that Democrats and Republicans choose distinctive […] The post Political Sorting in the U.S. Labor...

This paper studies the impact of artificial intelligence on innovation, exploiting the randomized introduction of a new materials discovery technology to 1,018 scientists in the R&Dlab of a large U.S. firm. AI-assisted researchers discover 44% more materials, resulting in a 39% increase in patent filings and a 17% rise in downstream product innovation. These compounds […] The post Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product...